Whether renting an apartment, buying a home or looking for a space to start your own business, the real estate and housing industry touches every New Yorker in one way or another. This expansive industry is led by an impressive group of leaders who have dedicated their careers to helping people and businesses call New York home. The 2024 PoliticsNY and amNY Metro Power Players in Real Estate list honors the public officials, business executives, public relations and lobbying experts, tenant organizers and nonprofit leaders who are ushering New York’s real estate and housing industry forward to a bright future.
Don Peebles, The Peebles Corporation CEO and chairman, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of the commercial real estate market, impact of elevated interest rates, the role of private credit, Peebles’ new lending arm, and more.
‘The first half of this year was supposed to be when interest rates began coming down, providing a lifeline to struggling commercial real estate owners. But it now appears the Federal Reserve may not be coming to the rescue anytime soon.
Following Wednesday’s consumer price index report showing that inflation rose 3.5% year-over-year in March, the expert consensus around interest rate expectations has shifted, with economists pushing back their predictions for when rates will begin to fall and lowering the number of cuts they expect this year. Some even think another rate hike may be in store.
Several commercial real estate leaders and economists told Bisnow that interest rates remaining higher for longer could cause further pain in the industry, as owners who were holding out for near-term cuts are faced with the prospects of halting projects, selling assets and handing back keys to lenders.
But there could be a silver lining for the commercial real estate industry, experts say, as owners giving up on waiting for rate cuts could lead to more buying opportunities and increase transaction activity.
"There's no rest for the weary," LHMeyer CEO Derek Tang, an economist who focuses on Fed policy, wrote in an email to Bisnow. "CRE was initially hoping for a quick easing cycle, which would buy investors time to regroup and restructure and hopefully face lower rates once loans roll over or investors consider selling. Instead, high inflation means the Fed will keep interest rates higher than otherwise, depressing valuations now and reducing hope that there is quick relief."
This period of high interest rates — which started with the first increase in March 2022, followed by 10 more hikes through last summer and flat rates since — continues to cause pain for commercial real estate. But Joy Construction principal Eli Weiss notes that it came after years of low rates before 2022, a period he described as "drinking and feasting."
"Unfortunately, what our industry is experiencing right now is a hangover, right?" he said. "The hangover is going to last a little bit longer than we all wanted it to. But in reality, it's not as if that means that the industry is completely in a state of comatose. It will have to just weather through this."
This week's inflation numbers, paired with last week's strong jobs report, are the latest indicators that the Fed may push rate cuts back further than previously expected.
On Dec. 22, a report showed the personal consumption expenditure price index, another key inflation measure, fell by 0.1% from October to November, the largest decline since April 2020. This led traders to boost bets that the Fed would begin to cut rates in March.
At the beginning of the year, ING Chief International Economist James Knightley predicted that there could be up to six rate cuts starting in the second quarter.
The sentiment changed quickly as inflation numbers began to creep up in January, leading interest rate futures to shift predictions for the first cut from March to June.
March came and went without a rate cut, as the Federal Open Markets Committee held rates steady in the 5.25% to 5.5% range at their March 20 meeting. But a majority of members still said at the time they believe three interest rate cuts this year are appropriate.
After Wednesday's inflation report, Goldman Sachs and UBS economists changed their predictions for interest rate cuts this year, The Wall Street Journal reported. They had previously forecast three cuts starting in June, but now Goldman is predicting two cuts starting in July, and UBS is projecting two starting in September.
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said Thursday that rate cuts may still be coming this year, but the timing remains unknown, Yahoo Finance reported.
"Overall, the recent data have not materially changed my outlook, but they do highlight uncertainties related to timing and the need for patience,” Collins said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York.
"It may take longer to discern whether the economy is sustainably on a path back to 2% inflation, and thus less easing of policy this year than previously thought may be warranted," she added.
Some leaders have even said that more rate hikes may still be on the table. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that interest rates could potentially increase to more than 8% to curb inflation and geopolitical stress, the WSJ reported.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said there is a chance that the next rate move will be upward. He estimated it as a possibility in the 15% to 25% range, but it is one that "you have to take seriously," Bloomberg reported.
Walker & Dunlop CEO Willy Walker said Wednesday he worries Fed officials aren’t taking commercial real estate’s problems as seriously as they should.
"That’s my big concern … they sit there and say, 'OK, there's a couple industries which are very interest rate dependent: housing, autos, commercial real estate,'" he said on his Walker Webcast. "They're only 20% of the economy, and the rest is all cranking along, so why do we need to do anything because we don't want to screw up the other 80%?"
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
For many in the commercial real estate sector, this change in interest rate expectations has put a damper on their strategy, as some have time-sensitive projects and maturing loans that need to be dealt with soon.
"For the people who need to rely on debt markets, they are going to feel pain. And for the people who have capital to deploy, they will have opportunity," Weiss said about interest rates staying high. "It's sort of like a forest fire. It's very, very painful to watch, painful to live through, but it does regenerate the forest. So round and round we go."
Suffolk Construction CEO John Fish said that "time is not on our side" for the commercial real estate industry due to the amount of debt maturing in the near future. Newmark this month estimated that $929B of CRE loans will come due this year.
"Many of us in the real estate and construction industries have seen a trainwreck coming for quite some time," Fish wrote in a statement. "With interest rates at their current levels, the refinancing of that debt on existing assets will be extremely difficult, and available liquidity for new construction loans could be virtually non-existent."
Yasmine S. Antoine, Esq., chief operating officer and general counsel at H.J. Russell & Co., said that the pain will be asset class-dependent with some, like data centers, being "unphased" by high interest rates.
"Whereas the multifamily market (including affordable housing) is the most impacted because the financial returns are drastically reduced by increased loan costs and cap rates as well as the fact that every facet of the build process comes through the supply chain," she said in a statement.
Some real estate executives see the prospect of interest rates staying higher as a factor that could lead to an increase in transaction activity and create opportunities for investors.
Last year, commercial property sales volume stood at $374.1B nationally, a 51% drop from the year prior, according to MSCI's 2023 Capital Trends report.
"While transaction volume has dropped to its lowest in a decade, I anticipate a turnabout of activity with several factors converging," Friedman said in an email.
"These include the maturity of nearly $1T in debt this year in a constrained debt market - particularly for traditional banks under regulatory pressure, widespread ownership fatigue due to balance sheet stress and reduced expectations for a lower interest rate environment. This combination, especially the latter, is expected to be the primary catalyst spurring activity in the transaction market, as sellers are forced to have more realistic pricing expectations."
Peebles Corp. Executive Vice President Donahue Peebles III said he thinks that interest rates remaining high will keep transaction activity down overall, but it does present new opportunities.
"A prolonged tightening cycle largely yields more of the same for CRE," Peebles wrote in an email. "Transaction volume will continue to be depressed, refinancing property debt will be challenging in the near term, and the sector as a whole faces increased risk of distress with office at the epicenter of the discussion."
But Peebles added that interest rates staying high could help his firm to "play offense," and last week it launched a new private credit arm, Willowbrook Partners, to provide rescue capital to struggling owners.
"From a credit perspective, many incumbent lenders are constrained by underperforming or distressed paper creating opportunity for new entrants to win market share," he said. “We think we’re in a position to play offense while other firms are focusing on dealing with distress in their existing book. A prolonged tightening cycle will shrink the total number of deals being done, but increase the % of deals where a flexible private credit solution is needed.”
Joy Construction's Weiss said that if interest rates do not get cut soon, there will be more pain in the sector for those who were holding out for lower rates to start or refinance projects.
"This is where Darwinism and real estate sort of intersect," Weiss said. "The weaker developers or sponsors who can't weather this financially will ultimately either need to sell to stronger sponsors or give keys back to the bank. That starts the ecosystem of opportunity."
Handel Architects and Olin collaborate to design two striking towers that flank the downtown Los Angeles skyline, featuring a series of landscaped terrace decks
Handel Architects’ Angels Landing project in Downtown Los Angeles, developed by MacFarlane Partners, Peebles Corporation, and Claridge Properties, is a $2 billion skyscraper complex situated on Bunker Hill’s Y-1 land parcel.
The development comprises various uses centered around significant public open space, with the design of the open space being led by Olin.
The Angels Landing has been awarded a 2023 American Architecture Award from The Chicago Athenaeum and The European Centre for Architecture Art Design and Urban Studies.
Plans include 422 residential units, two hotels, cultural/civic space, and 50,000 sq. ft. of retail.
The site, most recently home to the temporary park known as Angels Knoll, was previously intended to be part of a re-development project decades ago.
On an urban scale, the project strives to connect the various neighborhoods that converge at this location, including the Financial District, the Historic Core, the Cultural District, and the Civic Center.
By using the buildings’ architecture and landscaping, the design encourages the fluid movement of people into and through the site’s many building lobbies, retail storefronts, and plazas.
The design approach is based on a number of key factors: the re-interpretation of the arrival plaza at the Pershing Square Metro Station; enhancement of the pedestrian experience of riding the Angels Flight funicular; and creating a more lively pedestrian experience to and from California Plaza and its adjacent office buildings.
Rising above the podium are two towers, organized to act as a gateway into the project site.
The lower tower is located along 4th Street and is set back from the corner of Hill Street, while the taller tower is located on the north side of the parcel and is located closer to the street edge.
The juxtaposition of the two towers creates a dynamic composition within the overall context and provides visual distinction from the surrounding context.
The 42-story tower incorporates a horizontal balcony feature that wraps around the building to create strong bands along the exterior.
The base of the taller tower is expressed by a similar balcony design, creating a dialogue between the two structures.
Above, the banding on the tower turns vertical by using protruding vertical fins that appear as layered screens in front of a horizontal substructure, exposing balconies at the corners of the floor plates.
Angels Landing is a development where urban design and architecture are fused to create a world-class development and a new landmark for the City of Los Angeles.
Project: Angels Landing
Architects: Handel Architects LLP.
Lead Architect: Gary Handel
Landscape Architects: OLIN
Clients: The Peebles Corporation and MacFarlane Partners LP.
Renderings: Courtesy of Handel Architects LLP.
It’s been 30 years since the commercial real estate market was this bad—and that represents a generational entry point for investment, according to a top developer.
The hybrid-work trend and high interest rates have sent commercial real estate values crashing in major cities, with Morgan Stanley warning earlier this year that office prices could face a 30% drop as a result of lower demand.
But Don Peebles, chairman and CEO of Peebles Corporation, said his company looks to develop when the market supply is tight and buy when it sees exceptional value.
“And what we’re seeing here in the commercial office space is essentially once-in-a-generation…opportunities to buy,” he told CNBC on Friday. “Nothing like this has happened since the early 1990s.”
That’s when a banking crisis resulted in hundreds of lenders shutting down, allowing Peebles to acquire some buildings for just 20 cents on the dollar, he added, as properties held by failed savings and loans were liquidated.
In fact, the acquisitions Peebles Corp. made in cities like Washington, D.C., back then were the foundation that enabled the company to develop in other parts of the country, the CEO said.
When it comes to today’s commercial real estate market, Peebles estimated that values for commercial office buildings in San Francisco and Washington, D.C., are down 60%-70%, with Los Angeles down 70% or more.
But Peebles sees a rebound coming that developers can take advantage of, if they have the stomach for it.
“Those are global cities that will come back at some point in time,” he said. “So you have to have the appetite to buy, understand how to stabilize the assets based on the current income potential, and then wait.”
To be sure, he expects the market to adjust to the new hybrid-work environment, with the supply of commercial office space declining as many buildings are “converted or repositioned or demolished.”
“And then you have the others that are basically worth nothing—the D class,” he told Fortune in February. “Those just have to be torn down. That’s probably at least 30% of all offices in the country.”
“I think that I’m a little contrarian in that I continue to believe in office,” KDM Financial CEO Holly MacDonald-Korth said in an interview with Fortune earlier this year. “We’re currently in a trough … But I don’t think that [in the] long term, offices are going away forever.”
Where Don Peebles sees ‘once in a generation’ opportunities to buy commercial real estate
Don Peebles, chairman and CEO of Peebles Corporation, joins CNBC’s Power Lunch to discuss commercial real estate outlooks, the March jobs report, and more.
Don Peebles’ eponymous real estate development firm is stepping into the private credit space.
The Peebles Corporation announced Friday that it has founded Willowbrook Partners, a Miami-based private credit firm that aims to provide bespoke credit solutions in the $5 million to $50 million range for commercial real estate projects, CO has learned.
Peebles will serve as co-chairman of the board for the new lending company.
Peebles’s son, Donahue Peebles III, who will also serve as co-chairman of the new venture, told CO that the Peebles Corporation anticipates Willowbrook Partners to complete “several hundred million dollars” worth of transaction volume in its first year of operation.
“We have some big ambitions on total transaction value over the first year,” said Donahue Peebles III. “And we’re excited to jump in at a moment where we can add a ton of value to sponsors looking to invest in markets that we’re extraordinarily familiar with.”
Willowbrook Partners will be led by CEO Sten Sandlund, a four-decade CRE veteran who previously served as principal at Safko Capital and senior vice president at Israel Discount Bank of New York. Sundlund said that, in its first year, Willowbrook Partners is targeting mainly bridge lending and value-add lending in the “middle market space,” between $5 million and $50 million per project.
“Part of it is that I’ve found the middle market to be a great place to work throughout my entire career,” he said. “Eighty-five percent of all commercial real estate in the U.S. are middle-market assets, so it’s a nice niche to work in.”
Donahue Peebles III noted that, besides bridge and value-add lending, Willowbrook Partners will also lend on acquisition and pre-development financing. The firm aims to target investments across all asset classes, but will primarily focus on projects situated up and down the Interstate 95 corridor that stretches from Boston and New York to the Carolinas and South Florida.
“It will be asset classes that we’re familiar with and markets where we have been active historically and, as a consequence, have a fair degree of underwriting certainty as we move through the process,” he said.
In terms of the timing, both Peebles and Sandlund emphasized that the recent retreat of traditional lenders from large-scale CRE lending, together with more stringent capital requirements and the ongoing consolidation of many regional banks, have created a need for private credit to solve many problems associated with upside down CRE capital stacks.
“We’re living through what we can consider a seismic shift in the banking sector’s approach to commercial real estate lending, and it’s left a broad avenue open for private credit to step in and add value with limited institutional competition,” said Donahue Peebles III.
Sandlund said that the current bifurcation between institutional lenders and private lenders has been years in the making, and that many traditional lenders have been incentivized to offer only loans with lower loan-to-value ratios on CRE transactions – leaving the door open for middle-market private credit solutions on many projects.
“That makes it a fit for a private lender to work in concert with the institutional lenders and to take up that side of the market,” he said.
Willowbrook Partners will be primarily capitalized out of the Peebles Corporation family office. The firm believes that its decades of experience on the side of real estate development will translate into a new era of relationship banking from an upstart lender who knows what it’s like to be on the sponsorship side of the CRE equation.
“We’re developers who know what it’s like to be on the other side of the table, and as a consequence, we know how to behave as a lender so that our developer clients receive appropriate feedback on appropriate timelines,” said Donahue Peebles. “It’s what attracted us to the business model and made Sten the best person to run this business for us.”
Hosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
As landlords struggle to navigate New York regulations and as loans backed by multifamily become increasingly at risk, some owners are attempting to make a dash from the asset class before their day of reckoning comes.
To most, acquiring apartments or building new no longer makes sense since the expiration of the 421-a tax abatement. But during a Bisnow panel Thursday about penciling out multifamily deals in the challenging capital markets environment, developers Rockrose and Tishman Speyer said they are eager to make moves.
“I consider the next two years to potentially be some of the best of my career,” Ty Barnes, managing director of affordable and workforce housing at Tishman Speyer, said at Bisnow's New York Multifamily Development and Investment event, held at Convene 225 Liberty St.
Last year, just 1,035 properties traded hands in New York City for a combined $7.4B — a year-over-year drop of 35% and 52%, respectively, according to a report by Ariel Property Advisors.
Values for rent-stabilized apartments have substantially fallen from 2015 peak pricing, down an average of 18% across the five boroughs and as much as 51% in northern Manhattan, according to the report. That is attributed to the 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act, which eliminated landlords’ ability to raise rents by 20% when stabilized units become vacant and reduced the renovation costs that owners can recover to just $15K over 15 years, causing many apartments to sit empty after tenants move out.
The panel of real estate executives described sellers as “capitulators,” “losers” and “taking a hit” in this environment.
“People are facing guns. They're going to have to transact,” said David Schechtman, who heads Meridian Investment Sales’ middle-market team.
“When we look at projects, we look at it both ways: with or without 421-a,” Rockrose Chief Operating Officer Richard Brancato said. “If we can live with it without 421-a, we buy it.”
Well-capitalized developers like Tishman and Rockrose are expected to be opportunistic, especially knowing the demand for housing that exists in New York City. Last month, rents across the boroughs set new records for the month of February.
Avison Young principal Scott Singer added that he is seeing younger generations of real estate empires entering the mix.
“Several have said, ‘This is the type of environment where my ancestors built a portfolio, and this is the first time in my career that feels like everyone's running away,’” Singer said.
Still, New York being on sale doesn't mean investors are acting rapidly, especially with questions surrounding a 421-a replacement and the 2019 rent law.
“We don’t know what the rulebook is,” Tishman’s Barnes said. “Go to a lot of other markets and you have much more certainty. That’s what matters for capital.”
A former fundraiser for then-President Obama defended former President Trump against the $464 million bond levied against him by a New York judge, telling Fox News the Empire State obviously wants to inflict "pain" in case the GOP nominee wins his appeal.
Trump was ordered to remit a $464 million bond ahead of his appeal, or face potential liens or property seizures as threatened by New York Democratic Attorney General Letitia James after Judge Arthur Engoron handed down the landmark fine.
On Thursday, however, Don Peebles suggested to Fox News the situation is a ploy to disrupt Trump's presidential campaign and hurt him personally before that ability is lost in future proceedings, and that James "made a mistake."
Peebles, a Miami Beach real estate developer, underlined he's been a supporter of James for a long time and praised her support for minority-owned businesses since her time representing Fort Greene on city council in the early 2000s.
"I have expressed concern that I think that this is a very slippery slope to selectively enforce an archaic law that has got no victim," Peebles said on "Your World," adding James should allow Trump to continue the appeals process unimpeded if she is confident in her case.
Peebles also said the bond has nothing to do with whether Trump is a flight risk, but more so a guarantee of sorts the state of New York is able to damage Trump while it has the chance.
"I think they are confident, or think it's likely that this will get reversed, and then there will be no punishment," he said.
"So they're rushing to inflict as much pain on him as they can right now because once the appeals court puts an end to this, then there will be no repercussions," Peebles explained, adding the case appears to embody a "tactic" of distracting Trump from the campaign trail.
While the two men are both Florida-based real estate developers, Peebles noted he retains differences with Trump, including over past suggestions Obama was born in Kenya, not Hawaii. In 2016, Trump declared he formally believes Obama was born in the United States.
The developer has not held back when asked about criticism of President Biden either, as he told Fox Business in a February interview the Democratic Party should "turn the page" on their nominee.
"I don't see how [Biden] can beat Donald Trump," Peebles said at the time.
"If all that's been thrown at the former president has been thrown at him and he's still ahead in the polls, it's telling us all something that Americans don't want [Biden] and this administration anymore, and it's time for him to move on for the good of the country."
Charles Creitz is a reporter for Fox News Digital.
He joined Fox News in 2013 as a writer and production assistant.
Charles covers media, politics and culture for Fox News Digital.
Charles is a Pennsylvania native and graduated from Temple University with a B.A. in Broadcast Journalism. Story tips can be sent to charles.creitz@fox.com.
Image Credit: BISNOW
